How Will AI Impact the Future of the Clinical Workforce?

Contrary to some predictions, the use of artificial intelligence (AI) agents could lead to more, not fewer, health care professionals working in the United States, according to a new article by a physician and health policy researcher at Weill Cornell Medicine who surveyed economic theory and the history of technology in health care. Dr. Dhruv Khullar The rapid adoption and growing sophistication of medical AI tools have led to concerns that AI could replace many clinical tasks, resulting in fewer employment opportunities for clinicians, especially in highly exposed specialties, such as radiology, primary care, pathology and psychiatry. But, in a Perspective published on Aug. 29 in The New England Journal of Medicine, Dr. Dhruv Khullar , an associate professor of population health sciences at Weill Cornell Medicine and a hospitalist at NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center, argued that there are reasons to believe that AI could in fact support growth of the clinical workforce over time. Dr. Khullar noted that there’s little doubt that clinical roles will change in the AI era, and that some types of health care jobs could be replaced. “But economic theory and history offer distinct reasons to believe that in the long run, adoption of AI agents—even models capable of performing some forms of cognitive work—could lead to an expansion, rather than a contraction, of the clinical workforce,” he said. Building his case, Dr. Khullar cited cataract surgery and joint replacement as examples of Jevons paradox, in which technological advances that enhance the efficiency a resource can lead to increased use of the resource. Both surgical procedures have become more efficient by reducing clinical effort, shortening recovery time, and improving safety, which have enabled more patients to receive them. Dr. Khullar reasoned that AI may have a similar effect on other health care services, especially if AI systems are priced near marginal cost and reduce the overall cost of delivering care. Expectations of AI-driven job loss are also influenced by the “lump of labor” fallacy, which holds that there is a fixed quantity of work to be done. But Dr. Khullar argued that the type and amount of work changes over time in response to technological advances, and that AI may allow clinicians to prevent or treat conditions in ways that aren’t currently possible or imaginable. “AI may increase the demand for new professional capabilities by creating new treatments, care modes, and opportunities for specialization,” he wrote. Delivering high-quality care involves much more than successfully executing a given task. Rather, the practice of medicine depends on numerous skills and many interconnected steps, from interpreting test results to developing and negotiating treatment plans. “O-ring theory,” which gets its name from the faulty components on the Space Shuttle Challenger, contends that a single error at any step can seriously undermine outcomes. This may be especially relevant for many high-stakes situations in health care, which will continue to require the supervision of clinicians for reasons of safety and trust. All of this suggests that automating tasks doesn’t necessarily mean automating jobs. “In fact, if AI automates some clinical tasks, the value of nonautomated, human tasks may increase,” Dr. Khullar said. Category: From the News Room Source link: https://news.weill.cornell.edu/news/2026/08/how-will-ai-impact-the-future-of-the...